The after effects of Corona Pandemic is going to be telling in most walks of life. Be it the way we work, way we study, way we travel, way we worship, where we eat, how we shop, every single aspect of individual and social life is set to undergo a shuffle in medium term and quite possibly for long term as well. Ten years down the line, people may even forget how crowded places used to be – if at all the lessons from the virus are learnt correctly and if at all the virus relents. One gloomy and possibly likely scenario that is emerging is that, invariably 80% of the world population will get infected. This herd immunity is what going to save us (hopefully) with the rest of the 20% being made unreachable by the virus. When the courage to face the virus with the understanding that it is not fatal for everyone dawns on the general public, the process of the 80% getting infected will expedite exponentially.
Even now, people world over, are fed up of lockdowns and the havoc it is creating economically. They feel frustrated and if at all they’ve a battle to face, they feel better off fighting the virus, trusting their immunity and available medical help, rather than hunger. Probably the rentals from office spaces would take a hit as well, with more and more people, who have the option to exercise wfh, opting for the same to avoid risk of infection. It may free up parking spaces and eventually lot of consolidation happening on the SEZ’s and parks specifically created for those industries. I also anticipate lot of ghost buildings coming up and with lesser crowd required to be available on premise, there is going to be indirect cost saving for the companies in terms of power, water and other resources consumed, which would have direct hit on the security agencies, involved in sharing manpower for manning these premises. With lesser people on the road and willing to commute, wonder how much of an impact it would have on logistics. Will there be enough number of drivers to ship goods across the country? With lesser people on road and with already burgeoning deficit and loss, will public transports face the brunt of workforce reduction?
It opens up newer avenues for individual entrepreneurship to thrive I guess. The next billion dollar startup is just round the corner rivalling AirBNB. If all those migrant worker data via road and rail and bus and by walk are all recorded, it can be an actual blessing in disguise to track them and bring them to mainstream. It could be the biggest plus out of this catastrophe and could pave way for ensuring better accountability and job for them.
Comments
I think the absence of crowds is a very temporary phenomenon. Man is a social animal and has to congregate. In Bangalore, where lockdown has been considerably eased, crowds are everywhere.
I believe, much of life as we knew it will return in a year's time. We lived that life simply because we liked that best. We will get back to what we like best over time. But yes, there will be many winners and losers out of all this chaos.
Not at all sure that the fad of work from home will continue at this level for long. It will settle back to some equilibrium to office and home, but I am sceptical that in 3 years time, it will be so massively different that there are ghost buldings. Yes, the commercial real estate market will be depressed; but will it die ? I doubt it.
The nice fact of all this speculation is that nobody really knows. Junior's guess could be as good as yours and mine :)