Was reading thalai's latest blog post on Scottish National party's whitewash of a triumph in UK elections and its potential fallout. To me it would've felt like just another stats, but thalai being thalai, pulled off a totally new view point (to me at least) on the fallout of the election. How the victory of over 95% majority can spell death knell to the concept of an "United" kingdom and can cause David Cameron to cry "Great Scott!!" for all different reasons. What if the Scotts declare freedom from English crown? Will they be able to thrive as an independent country or rush back to IMF or WB with a begging bowl to bail them out? Considering the examples of countries that have been split, like Bosnia, Serbia and the other lots prior to them, they don't have a glorious precedence to follow either. At times I wonder how can an entire country go bankrupt, just like that!!! When people stop paying taxes, when government doesn't get money to pay its employees, when it doesn't get funds to run its industries, when it doesn't have funds to pay its pensioners, with all the freebies that they promise as part of their populist schemes feeding in corruption, with banks growing greedy over hyper interest loans to potential willful defaulters fully aware of their payback capacity..the list is endless. But the count of actors in each of these scenarios are a mere handful. It all boils down to wrong policy decisions made by people in power for their own selfish needs, is my guess.
I have no idea what would be the economic challenges that an would be separatist Scottish government would face. Taking the recent Telengana carving as a case in study, this arm chair - sports page and page 3 reader, can see no great a future for the would be new government, if at all it materializes. Whenever there is a cry for separatism, the protesting leaders always paint a rosy picture of how "us" will win over "them", if at all "we" had more power. Nothing whips up mob hysteria more than the utopian dream of "ellorum innattu mannar". But the "ellarum" turns out, more often than not, to be some close relatives of the powers to be personalities!! Telenganists, if at all there is a term for them, claimed the same and rode to power on people's fury. The cost of creating the state didn't just run into crores of administration rupees, but claimed several scores of innocent, misguided lives as well. The throne to power was built on the burnt aspirations of many a family. Emotional mind seldom agrees to the philosophy that even if you lock yourself in a coffin, no man can ever be an island, never ever and never at all. We need to co-exist to exist. The day is not far when every single political chieftain with a following is going to pursue similar ambitions. The seeds are already being sown in elsewhere as well with calls for smart cities for the chased away pundits. And probably they could even claim for a weeping wall ala Jerusalem. I could be sounding pretty harsh and petty here, but me never a big fan of separatism.
I always consider India as the Trantor to Harry Seldon's Foundation. The day will soon come when the entire world will realize the Indian model is the guide to future settlements. Provided, we survive as a country. We've inherited every single confusion and chaos that prevails world over and yet we hang on as a country!! Every single state barring one or two are staring at an economic Armageddon of a scenario ala the Greek and Cypriot, yet the overall rating is done based on the central governments policies!! I am not an economics buff, but yet this stumps me. When 20 out of 27 states are bankrupt, how can the national rating be stable??!! Does the remaining 7 states, power the rest of 20?? Also, with every passing government throwing one freebie after another to its states citizens, carving boundaries listed by religion, caste, sub caste, super sub caste, reserving every single job opportunity under the name of some or other politico social measure, it would be nothing short of a miracle for the world to pursue and follow, if India exists as a confederation in 2 decades time.
Greek was once known for its bearded philosophers who spoke in quotes (sic). Nowadays the Greek male is known more for his Adonisian brawn than Aristotlean brain. Indians are depicted as the rope trick wizards and snake charmers even in comics and cartoons. Hope the great Indian rope trick rescues us from possible and potential economic hell hole.
I have no idea what would be the economic challenges that an would be separatist Scottish government would face. Taking the recent Telengana carving as a case in study, this arm chair - sports page and page 3 reader, can see no great a future for the would be new government, if at all it materializes. Whenever there is a cry for separatism, the protesting leaders always paint a rosy picture of how "us" will win over "them", if at all "we" had more power. Nothing whips up mob hysteria more than the utopian dream of "ellorum innattu mannar". But the "ellarum" turns out, more often than not, to be some close relatives of the powers to be personalities!! Telenganists, if at all there is a term for them, claimed the same and rode to power on people's fury. The cost of creating the state didn't just run into crores of administration rupees, but claimed several scores of innocent, misguided lives as well. The throne to power was built on the burnt aspirations of many a family. Emotional mind seldom agrees to the philosophy that even if you lock yourself in a coffin, no man can ever be an island, never ever and never at all. We need to co-exist to exist. The day is not far when every single political chieftain with a following is going to pursue similar ambitions. The seeds are already being sown in elsewhere as well with calls for smart cities for the chased away pundits. And probably they could even claim for a weeping wall ala Jerusalem. I could be sounding pretty harsh and petty here, but me never a big fan of separatism.
I always consider India as the Trantor to Harry Seldon's Foundation. The day will soon come when the entire world will realize the Indian model is the guide to future settlements. Provided, we survive as a country. We've inherited every single confusion and chaos that prevails world over and yet we hang on as a country!! Every single state barring one or two are staring at an economic Armageddon of a scenario ala the Greek and Cypriot, yet the overall rating is done based on the central governments policies!! I am not an economics buff, but yet this stumps me. When 20 out of 27 states are bankrupt, how can the national rating be stable??!! Does the remaining 7 states, power the rest of 20?? Also, with every passing government throwing one freebie after another to its states citizens, carving boundaries listed by religion, caste, sub caste, super sub caste, reserving every single job opportunity under the name of some or other politico social measure, it would be nothing short of a miracle for the world to pursue and follow, if India exists as a confederation in 2 decades time.
Greek was once known for its bearded philosophers who spoke in quotes (sic). Nowadays the Greek male is known more for his Adonisian brawn than Aristotlean brain. Indians are depicted as the rope trick wizards and snake charmers even in comics and cartoons. Hope the great Indian rope trick rescues us from possible and potential economic hell hole.
Comments
Yes, there are very few examples of states seceding and actually succeeding. And completely agree with your take on Telangana and other separatist movements.
As you observed most state governments are bankrupt. They are being kept afloat only because of central grants and bailouts. The Central Government runs a better budget but even there they are borrowing and spending money like water on doles, subsidies and such freebies.